Heather’s 2016 Oscar Predictions

Oscar statuettes are lined up in a local souvenir shop 10 days prior to this year's upcoming Oscars, the 85th Academy Awards, in Hollywood, California, on February 14, 2013. The ceremony is scheduled for February 24, 2013. AFP PHOTO / JOE KLAMAR (Photo credit should read JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images)

JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images

With the Academy Awards ceremony only a few days away, it’s time once again for me to make my annual Oscar predictions. I’m still valiantly trying to cross some final movies off my list – watched Steve Jobs last night and actually liked it a lot more than expected – but these are my best guesses at who will walk away with a little gold statute on Sunday. I didn’t make any predictions for the shorts this year, as I haven’t seen any of them and there is so little chatter about them that I couldn’t even make an educated guess. These are who I think will win, not necessarily who I think should win. That’s an important distinction. As always, feel free to send a portion of your winnings this way if my picks help you win your Oscar pool.

  • Best Original Song:

The nominees are:

“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey

“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction

“Simple Song #3,” Youth

“Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground

“Writings on the Wall,” Spectre

Most years I’d just go with the latest James Bond song and be done with it, but I really thought that “Writings on the Wall” is a terrible song and I have to believe that a majority of people in the Academy will agree with me. Frankly, this has been Lady Gaga’s year, beginning with her stellar tribute to The Sound of Music at last year’s Oscars and rolling through to a Golden Globe win just a few weeks ago for her role on American Horror Story. Pair that with a powerful song about an important issue – sexual assault on college campuses – and I think that’s too much for the voters to ignore.

Predicted winner: “Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground

 

  • Best Cinematography:

The nominees are:

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Sicario

I’d love to think that The Hateful Eight was going to win, but I think the film is just too divisive to garner enough support. If I was handicapping this race, my instincts tell me that it’s between Mad Max and The Revenant, and since I expect The Revenant to do very well overall this year, I’m guessing it will edge out Mad Max.

Predicted winner: The Revenant

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  • Best Documentary:

The nominees are:

Amy

Cartel Land

The Look of Silence

What Happened, Miss Simone

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

I’m planning on powering through most of these films this weekend – at this point I’ve only watched What Happened, Miss Simone, but my instinct is that Academy voters will be drawn to the cautionary tale of a celebrity taken from us too soon.

Predicted winner: Amy

Amy--A4-Poster

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Best Costume Design

The nominees are:

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

This is a pretty diverse group of nominees; there is the rugged looks of Mad Max and The Revenant up against the period piece stylings of Carol and The Danish Girl, with a little whimsy thrown in from Cinderella. My guess is that the victories for the rugged and creative costumes are in just being nominated and that voters will continue their trend of reward classic and beautiful costumes from the recent past.

Predicted winner: Carol

carol-movie-poster

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Best Sound Editing

The nominees are:

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I saw almost all these movies and they all sounded pretty great. But I’m going out on a limb to say that most people have way more fondness for the Star Wars franchise than I do (not a high bar to meet) so nostalgia may be what pushes The Force Awakens across the finish line.

Predicted winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Star-Wars-the-Force-Awakens-Poster-Cropped

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Best Sound Mixing

The nominees are:

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Strategy this year – when I doubt, go with The Revenant

Predicted winner: The Revenant

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  • Best Makeup and Hairstyle

The nominees are:

Mad Max: Fury Road

The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

The Revenant

I think The 100 Year Old Man is too small of a movie to win this and Mad Max deserves to win something. The Academy has previously rewarded Charlize Theron for making herself ugly in Monster, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t reward her for chopping off most of her hair this year.

Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

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  • Best Animated Film

The nominees are:

Anomalisia

Boy and the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

C’mon….everyone know who is winning this one.

Predicted winner: Inside Out

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  • Best Film Editing

The nominees are:

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

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  • Best Visual Effects

The nominees are:

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I’m guessing the truly impressive work with the CGI bear is what makes the difference. It was so good that while logically I had to assume that wasn’t a real animal, my eyes refused to believe it.

Predicted winner: The Revenant

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  • Best Production Design

The nominees are:

Bridge of Spies

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

I’m not really confident on this one, but the sheer world building that had to occur in Mad Max: Fury Road is impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Martian squeaks in here either, but momentum dictates I stick with Mad Max.

Predicted winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

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  • Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are:

The Big Short

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

They managed to make a book about shorting the housing market into a fun and exciting movie. That deserves an Oscar.

Predicted winner: The Big Short

TheBigShortCSHeader

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

I’d love to see Ex Machina win this, but in Spotlight they created a dang near perfect movie.

Predicted winner: Spotlight

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  •  Best Original Score:

The nominees are:

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I think this is where The Hateful Eight makes its stand. Hard to argue with the genius that is Ennio Morricone

Predicted winner: The Hateful Eight

hateful-eight-poster-350

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Best Foreign Film

The nominees are:

Embrace of the Serpent

Mustang

Son of Saul

Theeb

A War

Based on sheer word of mouth and because Hollywood is obsessed with the Holocaust…

Predicted winner: Son of Saul

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  • Best Director

The nominees are:

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro Inarrin, The Revenant

Lenny Abramson, Room

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

As much as I love the idea of the guy who directed Anchorman winning an Oscar, I’m pretty sure that we’re going to see a historic back-to-back win for Inarrin.

Predicted winner: Alejandro Inarrin, The Revenant

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  • Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Rocky

Mark Rylance could be an upset here, but I think that the Academy loves a comeback story and Stallone revisiting a character that he created nearly 40 years ago will be too much for the voters to ignore.

Predicted winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

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  • Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

This is a weird year in that two arguably lead performances (Mara and Vikander) were submitted in the supporting category. I think this strategy will work and ultimate edge out the true supporting performances. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rooney Mara wins this – and Kate Winslet is always in it –  but Alicia Vikander basically carries The Danish Girl.

Predicted winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

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  • Best Actress

The nominees are:

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

 

This is probably a two person race: Jennifer Lawrence is in a terrible movie, Charlotte Rampling killed any chances she had with some controversial statements about #OscarsSoWhite and as completely charmed as I was my Saoirse Ronan’s performance in Brooklyn, I don’t think it will be enough to win over Oscar voters. I wasn’t as enamored with Carol as a lot of people, but Cate Blanchett is always great. This year, however, I think the favorite is Brie Larson for her tremendous turn in Room, a movie that you can’t really “enjoy” but that I really loved. Larson has been so good for so long that it’s nice that she will finally get some recognition.

Predicted winner: Brie Larson, Room

room

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Best Actor

The nominees are:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Frankly, I don’t even think that Cranston or Redmayne should have even been nominated, so that brings this down to basically a three person race. Matt Damon is always good and I really enjoyed The Martian, but I don’t think Academy members will see that as an Oscar-quality performance. I’m confident that the long national nightmare ends on Sunday and Leo gets his Oscar.

Predicted winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

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  • Best Picture

The nominees are:

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

You know, this is the first time in a long time when there isn’t necessarily a clear frontrunner for Best Picture. Usually by now, after other awards have been given out, there is usually more of a consensus of what will win or it is at least narrowed down to two films. I’d say this year that this is a three movie race; I wouldn’t be surprised if The Big Short, Spotlight, or The Revenant wins. I walked out of Spotlight convinced that I’d just watched the preemptive Best Picture winner, but The Revenant has proven to have a lot of momentum going into the Oscars. The Big Short is in the mix, but I think it will most likely play the role of spoiler by splitting votes that would have otherwise gone to Spotlight. Anecdotally, The Revenant has proven to be a pretty divisive movie – most people I know either really loved it or really hated it – but if I’m going with my head over my heart, I think it may be the big winner on Sunday.

Predicted winner: The Revenant

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Who do you think is going to win on Sunday? To you agree with my predictions or do you think I’m completely off base? What do you wish had been nominated that wasn’t? Leave a comment and let us know who you are rooting for Sunday night.

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